Keywords
Cryptocurrencies
Bonds
Predictive models
Chivo wallet
How to Cite
Abstract
This article examines how feasible it is for the price of bitcoin to reach $1 million within five years. This is a key assumption for the success of the $1 billion bitcoin bond issue that Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced in November 2021. The article examines the Chivo digital wallet ecosystem and the context in which the bitcoin bond issuance is framed. It shows that, applying conventional financial series forecasting models, it is unlikely that this goal can be achieved. And while it is possible to find a mathematical function of exponential type consistent with the goal, economically it seems impractical to achieve it.
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